Signal and Telegram are gaining millions of new users in recent weeks, but how many of those are actually leaving WhatsApp?
That WhatsApp didn't make a smart move with the release of its new privacy policy in early January is now common knowledge. The app has received worldwide criticism, a formal warning from Italy's Privacy Guarantor and even an email from the Minister of Technology of India, a country where WhatsApp has 400 million users.
Since the controversy erupted, moreover, two competing apps have seen the number of downloads by users explode: Signal, which has hit 50 million users, and Telegram, which has reached 500 million. But how many of WhatsApp's more than 2 billion users have really abandoned the Facebook group's instant messaging app? WhatsApp sta veramente perdendo milioni di utenti come si legge da più parti? E se sì, dove sono i dati che lo certificano?
Addio WhatsApp: cosa dicono i numeri
Buona parte degli articoli comparsi in rete negli ultimi giorni si basano sui dati forniti da App Annie, tra le società di analisi del mercato più autorevoli al mondo e famosa per le sue classifiche delle app più scaricate e usate. Questi dati dicono che, nelle prime tre settimane di gennaio (cioè, in pratica, da quando è iniziato il “privacy gate" di WhatsApp), c’è stato un crollo nei download dell’app.
I dati, però, si riferiscono a un solo Paese: il Regno Unito, dove sono stati oggetto di una discussione in Commissione Affari interni del Parlamento. According to App Annie, Signal has gained 7.5 million new users in the UK and Telegram 25 million.
The growth of the two competing apps Signal and Telegram, according to App Annie's data, would have been all at the expense of WhatsApp, which before the controversy was the eighth most downloaded app in the UK and is now 23rd. Signal wasn't even in the top 1,000 and has now become number one.
What the numbers mean
As always, the data must be interpreted: what App Annie, or any other company outside the Facebook Group, Google or Apple, can count is only the new downloads of an app. It can't know if and how many users have deleted the app from their smartphones, or stopped using it even without deleting it.
In fact, it can't be ruled out that the infatuation with Signal or Telegram, to WhatsApp's detriment, turns out to be a flash in the pan. Users are trying out new alternative apps to WhatsApp, but it's doubtful that they'll continue to use them for long or that such use won't become additional to WhatsApp.
We also need to look at global data and not just that of one country: in the US, for example, WhatsApp remained firmly in third place among the most downloaded messaging apps for Android and fifth place among social networking apps for iOS.